To subdue the enemy without fighting is the supreme excellence. - Sun Tzu

Friday, October 22, 2004

Conspiracy Theories

Conspiracies. Don't. Exist.

Osama bin Ladin was not colluding with the Carlyle Group to cause 9/11. 'The liberal media' is a myth.

It's human nature to try to find connections in unrelated, but elusively similar, events. But without any evidence, Occam's Razor always wins:
In the event of two possibilities, the more simple one is what should be assumed to be or have occured.

The rule of thumb I use is this: Everyone is loyal first and foremost to themselves, and everything they do is in the pursuit of profit. A safe, profitable course, is preferable to a risky, high-profit course. Above all, very few people are 'evil' in the traditional (sadistic) sense (since greed is much more self-serving to almost everyone), and those who are rarely attract followings. Certainly not large followings. How many did Charles Manson have? That's about as big as they get.

Osama bin Ladin conspiring with Carlyle to kill thousands for oil and defense spending? Why bother, when conventional means (extortion, conglomeration, threatening to stop dealing with a company unless they give a better price) are technically legal and already give plenty of profit?
Liberal media? Sure, maybe a bit because more media people are liberal than are conservative, but not to a 'conspiratorial' level.

So the next time you find yourself saying, "There just has to be a connection!!", without any other evidence, ask yourself if it is likely, or if it's just stupid.


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